Not directly applicable to the weather problem (which I don't understand well enough to talk about), but something I did with a class where we were doing very simple probability problems (spinning spinners/pulling things out of bags) was to run some simulated experimental data where we looked at what sorts of numbers we got if we did the experiment 50 times vs 200 times vs 1000 times. How far away from theoretical probability do you seem to be? So, if you do another experiment 50 times, what sort of error do you think you might have in your experimental probability numbers? I'm not sure I'm doing it well yet, but it's an interesting question.
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